Almost hidden among Elon Musk’s recent slew of right-wing rants on X, a bold assertion emerged that caught the attention of space enthusiasts: humans could land on Mars within four years and inhabit a self-sustaining city there in two decades.
This declaration from the SpaceX CEO seemed fantastical even by his standards. NASA, SpaceX’s collaborator, considers a first crewed Mars mission by 2040 ‘audacious.’ For Musk, this is not a new claim. In 2016, he predicted human missions to Mars within six years, even though the necessary heavy rocket was just a concept.
Many view Musk’s latest statement as just another example of his bravado. With wild stories of populating Mars with his own sperm and driving Cybertrucks on its surface, skepticism is understandable. However, some analysts perceive a clear purpose behind his vision.
If a self-sustaining Martian city of a million people in 20 years seems impossible, the idea of routine shuttle flights on SpaceX’s Starship rockets carrying cargo and human explorers is more plausible, according to experts. Musk’s $250 billion fortune cannot alone fund this massive endeavor, but potential investors might be inspired.
According to Matthew Weinzierl, a Harvard Business School professor, SpaceX’s goal is to show it is still an innovative and ambitious company, not one resting on its laurels. He emphasizes that SpaceX excels at turning unachievable visions into market successes. For them, the Mars mission is central to attracting talent and investment.
Weinzierl highlighted that revenue from other SpaceX ventures, such as Starlink, is crucial for funding Musk’s Mars ambitions. The reusable Starship rockets, said to cost around $10 million per flight, could make Mars missions financially viable. However, settling a million people on Mars is a substantially larger challenge.
Technical challenges also loom large. Starship has had only four test flights, with two ending in fiery explosions. A fifth flight is delayed due to environmental concerns. Additionally, an undeveloped tanker spacecraft is required to refuel Starship in orbit for its six-month trip to Mars.
Robert Zubrin, president of The Mars Society, believes a launch by 2028 is feasible. However, he cautions against one-way trips without adequate surface systems, like greenhouses for food production. Zubrin doubts SpaceX is focusing enough on these critical systems, noting Musk’s multiple commitments and stretched resources.
Despite these concerns, Zubrin trusts that SpaceX will achieve most of Musk’s vision, albeit on a different timeline. Musk has a track record of overpromising but eventually delivering significant achievements, like reducing space launch costs through reusable rockets.
Weinzierl also believes SpaceX’s culture of attracting talent is entrenched enough to sustain its vision even without Musk’s direct involvement. The company has built a robust internal culture that thrives on innovation and is not solely dependent on Musk’s leadership.
Elon Musk’s audacious timeline for human settlement on Mars has skeptics and supporters alike. While the challenges are immense and timelines uncertain, SpaceX’s focus on innovation keeps the dream alive, whether or not Musk is at the helm.
Source: Theguardian