German state elections have delivered a substantial blow to the ruling parties in Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s government, while securing historic wins for anti-establishment forces. This outcome is poised to deepen instability within Scholz’s already fragile coalition.
With just a year remaining before a national election, the September 1 results are set to pressure Scholz to adopt a tougher stance on immigration and intensify discussions on support for Ukraine. The diminished authority of the German government could likewise complicate European policy, particularly with France struggling to form a government after recent snap elections.
Initial projections indicate severe losses for the three governing parties in the Thuringia and Saxony elections. Scholz’s Social Democrats (SPD) saw a marked decline, securing only 6-7.6% of the vote, according to pollster Forschungsgruppe Wahlen. Junior coalition partners, the Greens and pro-business Free Democrats, risked being ousted from the Thuringia state parliament for failing to meet the 5% threshold.
Analysts predict that the election results will escalate tensions within Scholz’s ideologically diverse coalition. SPD General Secretary Kevin Kuehnert emphasized the need for the party to assert itself more decisively, rather than being led by other parties that have been expelled from state parliaments. The election outcomes mirror the broader fragmentation of Europe’s political landscape, where anti-establishment parties have increasingly gained ground amid crises such as the Ukraine conflict and rising inflation.
The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) emerged as the major victor, capturing 33.2% of the vote in Thuringia in its first regional election and nearly matching the conservative tally in Saxony. Meanwhile, the leftist populist Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) accrued 11.5-15.6% of the vote, outperforming all three coalition parties just eight months after its inception. The growing strength of these anti-NATO, anti-immigration, and Russia-friendly parties will complicate coalition-building efforts at both state and federal levels.
Compounding this issue, the governing coalition partners were already at loggerheads over this year’s and next year’s budget prior to the elections. Initially touted as a coalition of progress, the alliance has been described by Greens co-leader Omid Nouripour as a ‘transitional government’ plagued by ‘superfluous disputes’ and profound ideological discord, especially with the FDP. FDP Deputy Leader Wolfgang Kubicki noted that the election results indicated a loss of legitimacy for the coalition, warranting consequences.
Analysts observe that Germany’s diminishing support for Ukraine may become a more contentious issue, potentially rendering the nation more paralyzed and reliant on countries like Poland, France, and Italy to lead. The creation and subsequent success of the BSW could be particularly detrimental to the SPD, which has already seen significant erosion in its voter base since 2021.
The recent votes will likely spark debates over the repercussions of complex coalitions. Although the AfD is unable to form a majority, the conservatives in Thuringia will still struggle to establish a majority without the support of the BSW, despite substantial ideological differences. This dynamic will inevitably influence the Bundesrat, the upper house of parliament, and thus national policy-making. Coalitions involving either the BSW or AfD at the federal level remain unthinkable due to their foreign policy stances.
Voters may further penalize mainstream parties for their perceived ineffectiveness by shifting their support to anti-establishment forces. Political scientist Oliver Lembcke of the University of Bochum warned of a ‘vicious circle,’ where a lack of political efficacy drives voters towards anti-establishment options. As a result, the mainstream parties face mounting challenges in forming stable and coherent governing majorities.
The recent election outcomes in Thuringia and Saxony represent a significant shift in Germany’s political landscape, prompting challenges and reconsideration for the ruling coalition. The rise of anti-establishment parties signifies growing dissent and fragmentation, complicating efforts to maintain cohesive governance at both state and federal levels.
Source: Rappler